{"id":48877,"date":"2026-04-04T10:47:26","date_gmt":"2026-04-04T10:47:26","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/radiojehona.mk\/?p=48877"},"modified":"2026-04-04T10:47:26","modified_gmt":"2026-04-04T10:47:26","slug":"pushtimi-tokesor-i-iranit-nje-skenar-i-pamundur-per-shba","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/radiojehona.mk\/?p=48877","title":{"rendered":"Pushtimi tok\u00ebsor i Iranit, nj\u00eb skenar i pamundur p\u00ebr SHBA"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img fetchpriority=\"high\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"900\" height=\"599\" src=\"https:\/\/radiojehona.mk\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/04\/900-0-1775290022x5717422-20260316t214134z-1549962050-rc29u4auw5uy-rtrmadp-3-irannuclearhormuzstrait-ls-188.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-48878\" srcset=\"https:\/\/radiojehona.mk\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/04\/900-0-1775290022x5717422-20260316t214134z-1549962050-rc29u4auw5uy-rtrmadp-3-irannuclearhormuzstrait-ls-188.jpg 900w, https:\/\/radiojehona.mk\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/04\/900-0-1775290022x5717422-20260316t214134z-1549962050-rc29u4auw5uy-rtrmadp-3-irannuclearhormuzstrait-ls-188-300x200.jpg 300w, https:\/\/radiojehona.mk\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/04\/900-0-1775290022x5717422-20260316t214134z-1549962050-rc29u4auw5uy-rtrmadp-3-irannuclearhormuzstrait-ls-188-768x511.jpg 768w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 900px) 100vw, 900px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">P\u00ebr dekada t\u00eb t\u00ebra, nj\u00eb pushtim tok\u00ebsor i Iranit nga SHBA-t\u00eb \u00ebsht\u00eb par\u00eb si kufiri ekstrem i p\u00ebrshkall\u00ebzimit, shum\u00eb i kushtuesh\u00ebm p\u00ebr t&#8217;u nisur dhe shum\u00eb destabilizues p\u00ebr t&#8217;u mb\u00ebshtetur.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Ky supozim tani po dob\u00ebsohet. Nd\u00ebrsa lufta SHBA-Izrael kund\u00ebr Iranit intensifikohet, ajo q\u00eb dikur dukej e paimagjinueshme po b\u00ebhet m\u00eb e mundshme. Pyetja nuk \u00ebsht\u00eb m\u00eb vet\u00ebm n\u00ebse nj\u00eb pushtim tok\u00ebsor \u00ebsht\u00eb i mundur, por ku mund t\u00eb filloj\u00eb dhe n\u00ebse mund t\u00eb sjell\u00eb rezultate strategjike.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">N\u00eb shikim t\u00eb par\u00eb, periferia e Iranit ofron pika t\u00eb shumta t\u00eb mundshme hyrjeje, nga Gjiri Persik dhe Gjiri i Omanit deri te kufijt\u00eb per\u00ebndimor\u00eb. Por ky \u00ebsht\u00eb iluzioni kryesor. E nj\u00ebjta gjeografi q\u00eb e b\u00ebn t\u00eb menduesh\u00ebm pushtimin, e b\u00ebn at\u00eb edhe strategjikisht vet\u00eb-mposht\u00ebs.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Gjeografia ushtarake e Iranit i drejton forcat e jashtme n\u00eb nj\u00eb num\u00ebr t\u00eb kufizuar bllokimesh bregdetare, qendrash energjie dhe korridoresh kufitare q\u00eb jan\u00eb m\u00eb pak rrug\u00eb drejt suksesit dhe m\u00eb shum\u00eb shkaktar\u00eb p\u00ebr p\u00ebrshkall\u00ebzim m\u00eb t\u00eb gjer\u00eb. Ajo q\u00eb duket t\u00eb jet\u00eb nj\u00eb s\u00ebr\u00eb opsionesh \u00ebsht\u00eb n\u00eb t\u00eb v\u00ebrtet\u00eb nj\u00eb hart\u00eb pasojash.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Kjo logjik\u00eb shihet m\u00eb qart\u00eb n\u00eb pes\u00eb pika: Ishulli Karg, Ngushtica e Hormuzit, Ishujt Abu Musa dhe Tunbi i Madh dhe i Vog\u00ebl, korridori Chabahar-Konarak dhe drejtimi Abadan-Khoramshahr.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Secila prej tyre duket se ofron qasje, por asnj\u00ebra nuk ofron nj\u00eb rrug\u00eb t\u00eb qart\u00eb drejt suksesit strategjik.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Ishulli Karg<\/strong><br>Ishulli Karg \u00ebsht\u00eb shembulli m\u00eb i qart\u00eb se si ndikimi i duksh\u00ebm i fuqis\u00eb mund t\u00eb prodhoj\u00eb rrezik strategjik. Si bllokimi i eksporteve t\u00eb naft\u00ebs s\u00eb Iranit, p\u00ebrmes t\u00eb cilit kalojn\u00eb rreth 90 p\u00ebrqind e eksporteve t\u00eb naft\u00ebs s\u00eb pap\u00ebrpunuar, Kharg p\u00ebrfaq\u00ebson nj\u00eb pik\u00eb t\u00eb vetme klasike t\u00eb nj\u00eb r\u00ebnieje t\u00eb mundshme. Relativisht i izoluar nga brend\u00ebsia e Iranit dhe rreth 8 kilometra i gjat\u00eb dhe midis 4 dhe 5 kilometrave t\u00eb gjer\u00eb, ishulli \u00ebsht\u00eb kompakt, i ekspozuar dhe i mbushur dendur me infrastruktur\u00eb ky\u00e7e. \u00cbsht\u00eb qendra ekonomike e gravitetit t\u00eb Iranit, duke e b\u00ebr\u00eb at\u00eb pik\u00ebn m\u00eb t\u00eb p\u00ebrqendruar t\u00eb fuqis\u00eb ekonomike dhe cenueshm\u00ebris\u00eb n\u00eb vend. Nga nj\u00eb perspektiv\u00eb thjesht operacionale, ai premton nd\u00ebrprerje maksimale pa pasur nevoj\u00eb t\u00eb dep\u00ebrtoj\u00eb thell\u00eb n\u00eb territorin iranian.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Megjithat\u00eb, kjo \u00ebsht\u00eb pik\u00ebrisht ajo q\u00eb e b\u00ebn at\u00eb kaq t\u00eb rreziksh\u00ebm. Sulmi ndaj Karg nuk do t\u00eb mbetej nj\u00eb veprim ushtarak i lokalizuar. Goditja e shtyll\u00ebs kurrizore t\u00eb eksporteve t\u00eb naft\u00ebs s\u00eb Iranit do t\u00eb p\u00ebrhapej menj\u00ebher\u00eb n\u00eb tregjet globale t\u00eb energjis\u00eb dhe do t\u00eb nxiste frik\u00eb m\u00eb t\u00eb gjera n\u00eb lidhje me sigurin\u00eb e infrastruktur\u00ebs n\u00eb Gjirin Persik. Po aq e r\u00ebnd\u00ebsishme, kjo do t\u00eb shkaktonte nj\u00eb p\u00ebrshkall\u00ebzim, ndoshta duke e shtyr\u00eb Iranin t\u00eb hakmerret kund\u00ebr objekteve energjetike n\u00eb rajon.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Paradoksi \u00ebsht\u00eb i qart\u00eb. Vet\u00eb tipari q\u00eb e b\u00ebn Hargun t\u00ebrheq\u00ebs, roli i tij qendror n\u00eb ekonomin\u00eb e Iranit, siguron q\u00eb \u00e7do sulm ndaj tij do ta nd\u00ebrkomb\u00ebtarizonte shpejt konfliktin. Kargu nuk \u00ebsht\u00eb vet\u00ebm nj\u00eb objektiv, por nj\u00eb shkas q\u00eb ndryshon gjith\u00e7ka.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Ngushtica e Hormuzit<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Ngushtica e Hormuzit mbetet teatri m\u00eb i r\u00ebnd\u00ebsish\u00ebm n\u00eb k\u00ebt\u00eb konflikt. Pothuajse nj\u00eb e pesta e rrjedhave t\u00eb naft\u00ebs n\u00eb bot\u00eb kalon n\u00ebp\u00ebr k\u00ebt\u00eb kalim t\u00eb ngusht\u00eb detar, gj\u00eb q\u00eb e b\u00ebn at\u00eb bllokimin m\u00eb t\u00eb r\u00ebnd\u00ebsish\u00ebm t\u00eb energjis\u00eb n\u00eb bot\u00eb. Shpesh parashikohet si nj\u00eb lev\u00eb kontrolli q\u00eb premton ndikim t\u00eb madh strategjik.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Megjithat\u00eb, nj\u00eb pik\u00ebpamje e till\u00eb \u00ebsht\u00eb e gabuar. Ngushtica e Hormuzit nuk \u00ebsht\u00eb nj\u00eb pik\u00eb e vetme q\u00eb mund t\u00eb pushtohet, por nj\u00eb sistem kompleks detar-territorial. \u00c7do p\u00ebrpjekje serioze p\u00ebr ta kontrolluar at\u00eb do t\u00eb k\u00ebrkonte operacione kund\u00ebr Bandar Abbasit, ku ndodhet porti m\u00eb i madh i Iranit, si dhe Qeshmit, ishullit m\u00eb t\u00eb madh t\u00eb Iranit. Ato jan\u00eb nj\u00eb pjes\u00eb integrale e arkitektur\u00ebs mbrojt\u00ebse t\u00eb Iranit n\u00eb Gjirin Persik. T\u00eb kontrollosh ngushtic\u00ebn, n\u00eb thelb, do t\u00eb thot\u00eb t\u00eb hysh n\u00eb nj\u00eb luft\u00eb p\u00ebr territor.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Kjo krijon nj\u00eb dilem\u00eb ky\u00e7e. Kontrolli afatgjat\u00eb do t\u00eb k\u00ebrkonte dob\u00ebsimin e mbrojtjeve bregdetare, neutralizimin e aft\u00ebsive detare raketore dhe asimetrike, si dhe ruajtjen e nj\u00eb pranie t\u00eb p\u00ebrhershme ushtarake n\u00eb nj\u00eb mjedis jasht\u00ebzakonisht t\u00eb kontestuar. Ajo q\u00eb n\u00eb shikim t\u00eb par\u00eb duket si nj\u00eb mjet presioni pa nj\u00eb pushtim n\u00eb shkall\u00eb t\u00eb plot\u00eb, ka t\u00eb ngjar\u00eb t\u00eb shnd\u00ebrrohet n\u00eb nj\u00eb fushat\u00eb afatgjat\u00eb dhe me burime intensive, t\u00eb lidhur drejtp\u00ebrdrejt me mbrojtjen territoriale t\u00eb Iranit, me paq\u00ebndrueshm\u00ebri afatgjat\u00eb n\u00eb tregjet globale t\u00eb energjis\u00eb dhe zinxhir\u00ebt e furnizimit.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Tre ishuj<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Ishujt e Abu Mus\u00ebs dhe Tunbit t\u00eb Madh dhe t\u00eb Vog\u00ebl formojn\u00eb hyrjen strategjike per\u00ebndimore t\u00eb Ngushtic\u00ebs s\u00eb Hormuzit. Ndryshe nga Kargu ose Hormuzi, ato kan\u00eb vler\u00eb t\u00eb kufizuar ekonomike, por r\u00ebnd\u00ebsi t\u00eb madhe simbolike dhe gjeopolitike.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Kapja e tyre nuk do ta ndryshonte n\u00eb m\u00ebnyr\u00eb vendimtare ekuilibrin ushtarak t\u00eb fuqis\u00eb, as nuk do t\u2019i hapte rrug\u00ebn brend\u00ebsis\u00eb s\u00eb Iranit. Por, meqen\u00ebse ata ndodhen n\u00eb kryq\u00ebzimin e sovranitetit iranian dhe pretendimit territorial t\u00eb hersh\u00ebm t\u00eb Emirateve t\u00eb Bashkuara Arabe, \u00e7do operacion kund\u00ebr tyre do t\u00eb kishte pasoja politike n\u00eb m\u00ebnyr\u00eb disproporcionale t\u00eb m\u00ebdha.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Ajo q\u00eb duket si nj\u00eb l\u00ebvizje me pak kosto dhe shtrirje simbolike mund ta zgjeroj\u00eb luft\u00ebn pa p\u00ebrmir\u00ebsuar pozicionin strategjik t\u00eb Shteteve t\u00eb Bashkuara. Logjika \u00ebsht\u00eb n\u00eb p\u00ebrputhje me nj\u00eb model m\u00eb t\u00eb gjer\u00eb: vler\u00eb t\u00eb madhe simbolike pa p\u00ebrfitim strategjik vendimtar. Sa m\u00eb i leht\u00eb t\u00eb jet\u00eb objektivi, aq m\u00eb pak kontribuon n\u00eb suksesin strategjik dhe aq m\u00eb shum\u00eb rrezikon p\u00ebrhapjen e luft\u00ebs n\u00eb kushte t\u00eb pafavorshme.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>\u00c7abahar \u2013 Konarak<\/strong><br>Pika e hyrjes m\u00eb pak e p\u00ebrmendur ndodhet p\u00ebrgjat\u00eb bregdetit juglindor t\u00eb Iranit, ku korridori Chabahar-Konarak duket t\u00eb jet\u00eb nj\u00eb m\u00ebnyr\u00eb tjet\u00ebr hyrjeje. Krahasuar me Gjirin Persik shum\u00eb t\u00eb militarizuar, kjo hap\u00ebsir\u00eb \u200b\u200b\u00ebsht\u00eb gjeografikisht m\u00eb e hapur, m\u00eb pak e mbingarkuar dhe, n\u00eb shikim t\u00eb par\u00eb, m\u00eb e p\u00ebrshtatshme p\u00ebr operacione t\u00eb jashtme.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Megjithat\u00eb, kjo aksesueshm\u00ebri mbart edhe nj\u00eb kufizim themelor. Chabahar ofron akses pa ndikim real. Ndryshe nga Harg, ai nuk \u00ebsht\u00eb n\u00eb zem\u00ebr t\u00eb infrastruktur\u00ebs s\u00eb naft\u00ebs s\u00eb Iranit. Ndryshe nga Ngushtica e Hormuzit, ai nuk kontrollon nj\u00eb penges\u00eb ky\u00e7e bot\u00ebrore. Ndryshe nga bregu i Gjirit Persik, ky rajon ka nj\u00eb p\u00ebrqendrim m\u00eb t\u00eb ul\u00ebt t\u00eb infrastruktur\u00ebs kritike, megjith\u00ebse ende zot\u00ebron barriera natyrore mbrojt\u00ebse.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Megjithat\u00eb, problemi i saj kryesor \u00ebsht\u00eb distanca. Nj\u00eb pik\u00ebmb\u00ebshtetje n\u00eb zon\u00eb do ta linte \u00e7do forc\u00eb pushtuese larg qendrave ekonomike dhe politike t\u00eb gravitetit t\u00eb Iranit, duke e shnd\u00ebrruar qasjen fillestare n\u00eb nj\u00eb fushat\u00eb t\u00eb gjat\u00eb dhe logjistikisht t\u00eb kushtueshme. Nj\u00eb vend q\u00eb duket operacionalisht m\u00eb i leht\u00eb p\u00ebr t\u2019u hyr\u00eb \u00ebsht\u00eb strategjikisht shum\u00eb m\u00eb i dob\u00ebt.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Abadan \u2013 Khorramshahr<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">N\u00ebse pushtimi tok\u00ebsor do t\u00eb merrte nj\u00eb form\u00eb m\u00eb vendimtare, drejtimi m\u00eb i mundsh\u00ebm do t\u00eb ishte Abadan &#8211; Khoramshar n\u00eb jugper\u00ebndimin e pasur me naft\u00eb t\u00eb Iranit. \u00cbsht\u00eb rruga m\u00eb e drejtp\u00ebrdrejt\u00eb nga Gjiri Persik drejt territorit strategjikisht t\u00eb vlefsh\u00ebm.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Megjithat\u00eb, kjo nuk mund t\u00eb shihet n\u00eb izolim. \u00c7do p\u00ebrparim ka t\u00eb ngjar\u00eb t\u00eb filloj\u00eb n\u00ebp\u00ebrmjet Kuvajtit, t\u00eb vazhdoj\u00eb n\u00ebp\u00ebr Irakun jugor, t\u00eb kaloj\u00eb n\u00ebp\u00ebr Basra dhe t\u00eb hyj\u00eb n\u00eb Khuzestan, duke ndjekur rrug\u00ebn q\u00eb ndoqi presidenti i at\u00ebhersh\u00ebm irakian&nbsp;Sadam Husein&nbsp;kur Iraku nisi luft\u00ebn kund\u00ebr Iranit n\u00eb vitin 1980.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Megjithat\u00eb, sot, 46 vjet m\u00eb von\u00eb, territori i Irakut nuk \u00ebsht\u00eb nj\u00eb korridor pasiv. \u00c7do operacion i till\u00eb ka t\u00eb ngjar\u00eb t\u00eb p\u00ebrballet me presion nga milicit\u00eb e lidhura me Iranin, ve\u00e7an\u00ebrisht Forcat e Mobilizimit Popullor (Hashd al-Shaabi), madje edhe para se forcat amerikane t\u00eb arrijn\u00eb n\u00eb tok\u00ebn iraniane. Fusha e betej\u00ebs nuk do t\u00eb kufizohet vet\u00ebm n\u00eb nj\u00eb luft\u00eb klasike nd\u00ebrshtet\u00ebrore. Mund t\u00eb marr\u00eb karakteristikat e nj\u00eb konflikti t\u00eb fragmentuar dhe shum\u00ebshtresor brenda asaj q\u00eb \u00ebsht\u00eb n\u00eb thelb nj\u00eb hap\u00ebsir\u00eb \u200b\u200be vazhdueshme gjeopolitike shiite q\u00eb shtrihet nga Iraku jugor deri n\u00eb Iranin jugper\u00ebndimor.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Ajo q\u00eb duket t\u00eb jet\u00eb rruga m\u00eb e drejtp\u00ebrdrejt\u00eb p\u00ebr n\u00eb Iran \u00ebsht\u00eb, pra, edhe m\u00eb nxit\u00ebsja, duke mbartur rrezikun e nj\u00eb lufte m\u00eb t\u00eb gjer\u00eb q\u00eb p\u00ebrfshin si Irakun ashtu edhe Iranin. Vet\u00eb tiparet q\u00eb e b\u00ebjn\u00eb k\u00ebt\u00eb drejtim operacionalisht t\u00eb mundsh\u00ebm e b\u00ebjn\u00eb at\u00eb politikisht dhe ushtarakisht t\u00eb rreziksh\u00ebm n\u00eb t\u00eb nj\u00ebjt\u00ebn koh\u00eb.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">K\u00ebtu \u00ebsht\u00eb m\u00eb i theksuar iluzioni i nj\u00eb p\u00ebrparimi vendimtar, por edhe rreziku m\u00eb i madh.\/&nbsp;<strong>Marr\u00eb nga Foreign Policy<\/strong><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>P&euml;r dekada t&euml; t&euml;ra, nj&euml; pushtim tok&euml;sor i Iranit nga SHBA-t&euml; &euml;sht&euml; par&euml; si kufiri ekstrem i p&euml;rshkall&euml;zimit, shum&euml; i kushtuesh&euml;m p&euml;r t&rsquo;u nisur dhe shum&euml; destabilizues p&euml;r t&rsquo;u mb&euml;shtetur. Ky supozim tani po dob&euml;sohet. Nd&euml;rsa lufta SHBA-Izrael kund&euml;r Iranit intensifikohet, ajo q&euml; dikur dukej e paimagjinueshme po b&euml;het m&euml; e mundshme. Pyetja nuk &euml;sht&euml; [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":48878,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[569],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-48877","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-bota"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/radiojehona.mk\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/48877","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/radiojehona.mk\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/radiojehona.mk\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/radiojehona.mk\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/radiojehona.mk\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=48877"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/radiojehona.mk\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/48877\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":48879,"href":"https:\/\/radiojehona.mk\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/48877\/revisions\/48879"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/radiojehona.mk\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/48878"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/radiojehona.mk\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=48877"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/radiojehona.mk\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=48877"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/radiojehona.mk\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=48877"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}